Raupach et al. Reading

(Ctools) M. R. Raupach et al, “Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions,” PNAS 104:24, 10288-10293, June 12, 2007.

• No region is decarbonizing its energy supply, but the growth of CO2 emissions is greatest in rapidly developing countries (China).
  • Developing and least-developed countries account for 73% of emissions GROWTH in 2004 (only 41% of total global emissions)
  • Implications for global equity
• Growth in CO2 comes from both fossil-fuel combustion emissions and CO2 flux resulting from land clearing, this paper is focused on the former
• Raupach et al. do a regional analysis of emissions trends and their demographic, economic, and tech drivers by using the Kaya identity
• The global CO2 emission flux from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes (F) includes contributions from seven sources: national-level combustion of solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels; flaring of gas from wells and industrial processes; cement production; oxidation of nonfuel hydrocarbons; and fuel from ‘‘international bunkers’’ used for shipping and air transport (separated because it is often not included in national invento- ries).
  • See reading for exact equation, detailed analysis and methodology
• Results of analysis
  • Strong global CO2 emissions growth was driven by population (P) and per-capita global GDP (g) and also reversal of earlier declining trends in energy intensity of GDP (e) and carbon intensity of energy (f).
    • This f trend is occurring in developing and developed countries – no region is decarbonizing its energy supply.
  • IPCC scenarios are based on continuous decreases in e and f. If those decreases don’t happen, emissions will likely be much greater than as predicted in the scenarios.