Waggoner Reading

(Ctools) Waggoner, P. E. and J. H. Ausubel. “A framework for sustainability science: a renovated IPAT identity.” Proc National Academy of Science, 99.12 (2002):7860-5. http://phe.rockefeller.edu/ImPACT/ImPACT.pdf

  • ImPACT
    • Impact = Population X GDP X intensity of use as a good per GDA x Efficiency ratios as impact per good
    • Parents modify P, workers modify A, consumers modify C and producers modify T
    • Decline of C (dematerialization) and lower T (increased tech efficiency)
    • From rates of change of forces, this identity can forecast impacts
    • Additionally, can identify the necessary changes needed
  • Identify both actors with leverage on the forces for sustainability and how much goal achievement will cost in changed forces
  • I and i: environmental impact, same units as what is left on the other side, illustrated by emission
  • P and p: Population, which parents affect
  • A and a: GDP/capita. Produced by workers, A gives the income or economic muscle for the population to use (affluence or income)
  • C and c: intensity of use, ex Energy/GDP. Consumer driven, dematerialization or resource sparing by consumer behavior brings it down
  • Ti and ti: ratio of environmental impact to goods demanded and produced. Can be affected by A
  • Example chart in the reading
  • Impact of meat consumption on expanse of cropland 1967-1990
    • Growing animal feed occupies 1/3 of cropland
    • P and A begin the tally of changing forces driving cropland change I
    • Meat consumption per GDP becomes changing intensity of use C
    • Differing fed ratios: T1, varying crop yields: T2 (cropland to produce a ton of grain)
    • -2.2% change = 1.0 + 1.5 – 1.5 – .9 – 2.4
  • These forces can change rapidly or slowly, and they are interconnected
  • Dematerialization as income rises: Kuznets curve. First materialization, then dematerialization
  • Different sectors behave differently
  • Predictions—formula shows meeting Kyoto or relaxed targets was unlikely
  • Discussion to action → assigning responsibilities to those with leverage
  • Dematerialization is prevalent today